问题 › 我们不知道哪些产品赚钱 › 医疗机构
每家医疗机构都有价值导向合同，所有人都以为它盈利，而它往往是被补贴的那个。 这个问题在医疗机构的版本不是通用的。已对38,000人接受 downside risk，却没有定价所需的每 episode 成本数据——所以忽略每 episode 成本的答案必然错误。分析必须从支付方组合和患者面板规模入手，而非从收入。
每家医疗机构都有价值导向合同，所有人都以为它盈利，而它往往是被补贴的那个。 这个问题在医疗机构的版本不是通用的。已对38,000人接受 downside risk，却没有定价所需的每 episode 成本数据——所以忽略每 episode 成本的答案必然错误。分析必须从支付方组合和患者面板规模入手，而非从收入。
合同级贡献确实难算，因为多数成本跨 episode 分摊，而常见的按收入分摊方式会悄然扭曲答案。高收入合同显得成本高，低收入合同显得高效，这正好与低收入合同消耗更多归属患者注意力的实际情况相反。
可行的做法只分摊真正可追溯到 episode 或提供者的成本，其余保持未分摊。这样就能得到按合同或面板的贡献，以及一个诚实的共享成本池，比没人信任的全吸收数字有用得多。
结果通常令人不适。大多数组合里，少数合同支撑全局，至少有一条长期服务线已亏损多年，却一直被误认为盈利。
这三者同时出现才是标志。单独一个通常指向其他问题。
✓ 盈利仅以公司整体毛利率呈现，没有按支付方组合或合同拆分
✓ 尽管已知归属患者 downside risk，仍未退出任何价值导向合同
✓ CFO 与医务主任对同一面板中每位提供者的贡献给出不同答案
通常会让情况更糟的做法。 把全部间接费用全部分摊到服务线或合同，得出一个建立在任意规则上的精确数字，却因看起来严谨而被维护。
It is for you if you run or finance a healthcare provider and product profitability is quoted as a company-wide gross margin. It is the situation where the numbers are available but nobody has put them in an order that produces a decision.
It is not for you if Percision is the wrong tool if you already know the answer and only need execution capacity, or if the business is pre-revenue — then the constraint is evidence about the market, not analysis of your own figures. Percision is not a lawyer, tax advisor, auditor, licensed appraiser, clinical or regulatory filer, or an AI implementation shop. It does not do HR casework, creative-only brand work, or impersonate a named consulting firm. It is a strategy analysis engine — not a template library. Also wrong if you need facilitation, politics, or someone to sit with a lender or buyer. Those are human jobs.
Percision is not a lawyer, tax advisor, auditor, licensed appraiser, clinical or regulatory filer, or an AI implementation shop. It does not do HR casework, creative-only brand work, or impersonate a named consulting firm. It is a strategy analysis engine — not a template library.
Below is an excerpt from a real run of this analysis on 一家医疗机构. It is a sample profile rather than a customer, and it is engine output translated from English — this is the format you get, on your own numbers.
The subject is Cedar Ridge Health Partners, a sample company profile used for testing rather than a customer — 38,000 attributed lives under value-based contracts.
Excerpt from a real Percision run · Customer Value Architecture · sample company profile
The move. Turn 38,000 downside-risk lives into a self-funding 36-month analytics platform via payer co-development.
The leak it closes. Settlement lag (6–9 months) and payer audit adjustments reduced via internal attribution engine
The assumption it rests on. Payer agrees to 5-year exclusivity and 15–25% platform margin split — the engine put the probability at 0.75.
| Investment required | $2.5–3.0M over 18 months |
| Expected return | 7.6–9.1× over three years on $2.5–3.0M investment |
| Revenue, year 1 | $0 (platform build phase) |
| Revenue, year 2 | $6.9–11.4M (first shared-savings settlement) |
| Revenue, year 3 | $13.7–22.8M (full run-rate) |
| Exit criteria | Terminate if payer refuses exclusivity by Month 6 OR if attribution accuracy <80% by Month 18 OR if shared-savings pool < $60M by end of contract year 2 |
This is one move out of a full analysis. Read a complete report — every page, no email required.
This question routes to Matrix Strategy, one of 29 engagements the platform runs. For 医疗机构 it works through cost per episode, payer mix, panel size and contribution per provider, then produces the sequence rather than a list of options — which move first, what it funds, and the observation that would say the sequence is wrong.
You watch the analysis get built before paying anything. 在此阅读完整报告 if you would rather see the depth first.
几乎不需要。可追溯成本加一个未分摊池就能给出排序，而排序才是你需要采取行动的依据。完整作业成本法往往拖过最初的决策时限。
明确说明并定价支持成本。一条亏损但真正拉动盈利收入的线，就是有名字的营销成本——只要有人决定这么做，就没问题。
每年一次，或在组合发生重大变化后。排序比数字更稳定，所以每次重做都更省力。
Materially, yes. Downside risk has been accepted on 38,000 lives without the cost-per-episode data needed to price it — which changes both the diagnosis and the order of the fixes. The metrics that decide it here are cost per episode, payer mix, panel size, and an answer built on industry-general benchmarks will usually point at the wrong one first.
Less than most people expect. Your last twelve months of revenue and cost split the way you already split it, plus whatever you hold on cost per episode and payer mix. The analysis is explicit about what it is assuming where your data stops, which is more useful than waiting for numbers you may never have.
Percision is the wrong tool if you already know the answer and only need execution capacity, or if the business is pre-revenue — then the constraint is evidence about the market, not analysis of your own figures. Percision is not a lawyer, tax advisor, auditor, licensed appraiser, clinical or regulatory filer, or an AI implementation shop. It does not do HR casework, creative-only brand work, or impersonate a named consulting firm. It is a strategy analysis engine — not a template library. Also wrong if you need facilitation, politics, or someone to sit with a lender or buyer. Those are human jobs.
Percision is not a lawyer, tax advisor, auditor, licensed appraiser, clinical or regulatory filer, or an AI implementation shop. It does not do HR casework, creative-only brand work, or impersonate a named consulting firm. It is a strategy analysis engine — not a template library.
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